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Hard To Find... August 16th, 2019 by John Gross

We’ve been looking high and low, hither and yon, for something positive, optimistic, or encouraging to say, but alas, the words are nowhere to be found these days.

No need to go through the litany of problems plaguing the world, you’ve heard it all before –too many times perhaps.

But there is one thing that has been a bother, - No, more an irritant, like a pebble in the shoe, is how many times, repeatedly, on tv, the radio, or in newspapers, the dreaded R word is used, as in the next recession, just lurking around the corner, and ready to pounce. Have they nothing else to talk about? It’s as if it will become a self-fulfilling prophesy

Indeed, whether it’s interest rate inversions, the length of the current expansion that has lived too long, or weakness elsewhere in the world that is about to come to our shores, it’s just a matter of time before we are in trouble again.

As for metals, it is a very mixed picture.

Silver and gold rose to new highs last week, palladium is vacillating at the upper end of its range, and platinum is working toward a break out from resistance.

Copper was little changed on the week, despite another 67,400 mt going into warehouses, and bringing inventories to a 12 month high of 532,500 mt.

More concerning, however, is that the monthly average for Spot copper on Comex stands at $2.5862 through Friday, down 10¢ from July, and bringing us to a 2 year low.

Aluminum is holding its support line; lead is trying to move higher, but zinc has fallen through support.

As an aside, based on inventory to consumption ratios, lead and zinc should be star performers in this market.

The two most diametrically opposed members of the nonferrous family at the moment are nickel – making new highs, and tin – making new lows.

Given the diversion of political, economic and financial events, at the risk of repetition, it is going to take some time for the dust to settle, and for clarity to return.

Regards,
John


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